Weekly Market Analysis - October, 23rd
Learn analysis from the weekly crypto market price action and where the market is headed next.
In this Analysis:
Bitcoin
For the fifth consecutive week, Bitcoin has continued it’s range between the $18,400 – $20,400 price area.
Bitcoin tested the lower bounds of the range at around $18,400, but quickly recovered with many buyers coming in at that price. This is a sign of the strength of that support, however, this area has now been tested many times, a bearish signal, perhaps indicating it will soon fail to hold.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization has maintained itself exactly over the past week remaining at $367 Billion. This is a signal that soon we may see a large move, either to the upside or down.
There has been no significant market or breaking news stories that have had an impact on price, hence the sideways movement. November 2nd is a key date to watch, with the FED announcing the latest interest rate hikes.
$18,400 and $20,400 are still the key levels of support to watch to see if the markets will turn bearish or bullish in the short-term.
Ethereum
Ethereum, correlating with Bitcoin and the rest of the market, has continued to range for the fifth week in a row between $1,250 – $1,400.
This week we saw Ethereum retrace to the lower bounds of the range, followed promptly by a recovery to $1,300.
Ethereum’s market capitalization has slightly increased from $157 Billion from this point last week, to the current price of $159 Billion, equalling a 1.2% rise.
When you compare this to Bitcoin, Ethereum has been a better store of value over the past week by 1.2%.
The key areas for Ethereum are still breaking $1,400 for bullishness, and falling past $1,250 for bearish price action.
What's Next?
Bullish perspective – @CryptoKaleo
A bullish perspective from market analyst, @CryptoKaleo, market analyst on Twitter with 535k followers, shows an inverted chart of Bitcoin.
The chart clearly depicts how the chart can be seen as ‘bearish’ due to Bitcoin most likely falling to test trendlines. However, when you look closely at the price axis, you can clearly see the chart is inverted and therefore can be considered bullish.
@CryptoKaleo’s chart shows his expectation for the price of Bitcoin to hit around $24,100 by early November. This is because he believes the trendline will be broken, and that the price will follow and complete the ‘M’ pattern, a bullish pattern in this case due to the chart being inverted.
Bearish perspective – @CryptoGodJohn
A bearish perspective from market analyst, @CryptoGodJohn, a Twitter account with 416k followers, analyses the potential market movement over the next week for Ethereum.
@CryptoGodJohn charts his belief that Ethereum will wick to as low as $1,150 by the end of this week. This move would see the likes of Bitcoin correlating and falling to around $18,400.
This move is believe to be short lived and could be followed by a short-term bullish reversal near Ethereum’s range highs to around $1,340.
The overall consensus from this chart depicts that the range highs and lows will not yet be full broken and we will continue this ‘painful’ price action of sideways movement for many more weeks to come.
Other Altcoins
For other altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) during this week we saw the market capitalization fall once again, from $354 Billion to $350 Billion. This is an decrease of 1.12%.
As other altcoins have fallen yet again while the market trends sideways, this indicates that Ethereum and Bitcoin are better stores of value and more worthwhile holding in your portfolio at the current moment.
Ethereum has been the best store of value over the past week, increasing 1.2% more than Bitcoin, and 2.32% more than other altcoins.
(CoinMarketCap).
The Top 100 Altcoin gainers were:
Meanwhile the biggest losers were:
(CoinMarketCap)
Bitcoin Dominance
When you zoom out on the Bitcoin dominance chart, it is clear that Bitcoin dominance is in an uptrend. This signals that Bitcoin will perform better than Ethereum and other altcoins over the coming months as it is taking away market capitalization from those two areas.
Bitcoin’s dominance has slightly increased to 41.9% over the past week, from 41.7% last week.
Important Indicators:
- If Bitcoin dominance rises while the Bitcoin price rises, that will signal a potential rally for Bitcoin, while alt’s perform poorly.
- Once we start to see this dominance drop, while the Bitcoin price also rises, that will be a sign that altcoins will start to out-perform Bitcoin.
Market Sentiment
The current market sentiment is in the state of ‘Extreme Fear’, with a score of 23 out of 100.
For an entire month the score has remained from 23-24. While the market moves sideways, the fear index will not fluctuate much until the range that we are currently in between $18,400-$20,500 for the price of Bitcoin is clearly broken.
When you compare the current score of 23, to the yearly Crypto Fear & Greed index, this is historically a good area to buy .
Important Indicators:
- High amount of ‘Fear’ is an indicator to buy
- High amount of ‘Greed’ in an indicator to sell
News
There have been several weekly news stories and on-goings in the world that have impacted the crypto market. The following are some of the key headlines:
COINBASE SUPPORTING GRAYSCALE’S BITCOIN ETF PROPOSALS
Coinbase, this week, have filed a support claim in favour of Grayscale, with the hopes of helping the Bitcoin ETF proposal. Coinbase claims that the SEC have been unlawfully denying every single Bitcoin ETF proposal, whilst also allowing other riskier proposals to be approved.
WARNER BROS WEB3 EXPERIENCE
Warner Bro’s, an absolute titan in the movie industry, responsible for the likes of Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter, have this week announced their first step into the world of Crypto, launching their very own Web3 NFT experience.
GLOBAL ADOPTION
Checkout.com, a payment solution provider, valued at $40 Billion, has partnered with Relai to offer simple and easier purchases of Bitcoin. Users can use simply buy Bitcoin with Apple pay, Visa, Mastercard and more, making the payment process simpler.
N26, a popular German bank, valued at just shy of $10 Billion, is supporting trading of Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. The news comes as a huge boost for adoption, as it offers an easy avenue for customers of the bank to access Crypto at ease.
CRYPTO MARKET PRICE ACTION
37 days, the amount of time we have been stuck within the same range between $18,500 and $20,500.
With a Fear & Greed score of 23 out of 100 (alternative), fear is evident among the Crypto space, with many expecting another leg down, with the poor economic state the world is in at the current moment.
EU TO CRACK DOWN ON BITCOIN MINING AND PROOF-OF-WORK
A draft bill is set to be released by the EU which will oppose the use of Proof-of-Work Cryptocurrencies and instead encourage the more environmental friendly Proof-of-Stake Crypto’s.
With the potential shortage of energy over the upcoming winter months, and the on-going war conflicts, the EU feel it’s imperative to step in.
Investment Advice
The best thing to do currently is quite simply nothing. The truth is that no-one knows the next step that the market will take due to un-certainty in the macro-environment with threats of war, and the ever on-ongoing inflation affecting markets.
Remaining side-lined until this range is clearly broken is the best thing you can do. If the support at $18,400 is broken, then it would be a good time to begin to enter the market slowly. If the $20,400 resistance is broken, then markets will see some relief rallies short-term and it again would be a good time to begin to Dollar Cost Average into positions.
As always, the long-term advice would be to find those altcoin gems that can make you life changing gains. On the Cryptoreviewing.com website we provide top quality, comprehensive altcoin reviews to help you find the perfect investment, for those life-changing gains.
Not financial advice. Educational content only. Always do your own research.