WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS & INVESTMENT ADVICE
4th December 2022
Bailey West
Bitcoin Analysis
Bitcoin has had a green week, rising from $16,000 to $17,000. We have seen short-term relief over the past three weeks, following the FTX crash, where we saw lows of $15,800.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization ends the week at $328 Billion, rising $12 Billion from $316 Billion the previous week, equal to a 3.8% rise.
$17,200 – $18,000 is the new key level of resistance, which you’d like to see Bitcoin break and consolidate above for further Bullish momentum. $15,700 is the key level of support that if Bitcoin loses, will likely mean we visit the $13-14K region.
Ethereum Analysis
Ethereum has too seen a green week, rising to highs of $1,300 over the past week, whilst currently sitting at $1,263.
Ethereum’s market capitalization has risen from $146 Billion to $155 Billion this week, equalling a 6.2% rise.
When you compare this to Bitcoin, it has risen slightly more, by 2.4%
The key area of resistance for Ethereum is now $1,300 if we are to see further Bullish momentum. The area of support remains to be $1,080, which if broken through, could signal $700-800 for Ethereum in the short-term.
What’s next?
Bullish perspective – @GertvanLagen
A bullish perspective from @GertvanLagen, market analyst on Twitter with 66k followers, is depicted above.
The Bullish outlook outlines the similarities that we are seeing in the price action over the past few weeks, with that of a typical Wyckoff pattern.
When you compare the pattern to the current chart, it suggests that we are about to enter ‘Phase E’, where we will see the price increase towards $20,000 for Bitcoin over the coming weeks.
Bearish perspective – @Pentosh1
Above is a bearish market perspective from market analyst @Pentosh1, a Twitter account with 660k followers.
@Pentosh1 charts Ethereum, and his anticipation that it will ‘eventually take out the equal lows”. Here, he refers to the equal lows of $1,150 and $1,072.
The analysis comes in line with the higher time frame support lines that Ethereum has traded between over the past few months, and the expectation that all these lows are taken out following recent bearish price action.
This price action would see Bitcoin and the rest of the Crypto market follow suit, dropping 13%+ over the coming weeks/months.
Other Altcoin’s (Excluding BTC & ETH) analysis
For other altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) during this week we saw the market capitalization maintain itself exactly, staying at the $328 Billion level.
This signals that Other Altcoins have been the worst store of value. Meanwhile, Ethereum has been the best with a 6.2% weekly rise, followed by Bitcoin with a 3.8% weekly rise.
Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin dominance has risen this week from 39.98% to 40.39%, in line with Bitcoin performing well.
This signals that investors are distributing their funds to Bitcoin again as the market bounces back.
Important Indicators:
- If Bitcoin dominance rises while the Bitcoin price rises, that will signal a potential rally for Bitcoin, while alt’s perform poorly.
- Once we start to see this dominance drop, while the Bitcoin price also rises, that will be a sign that altcoins will start to out-perform Bitcoin.
The top 100 altcoin gainers over the past week include:
(CoinMarketCap).
Meanwhile, the biggest losers were:
(CoinMarketCap)
Market Sentiment
Despite the market having a green week, the Fear has risen, from a score of 28 to 26. This signals that investors are more fearful, potentially hinting a Bitcoin dump as the price approaches resistance around $17,000.
It has been three weeks since the FTX crash, and fear still remains high in the markets.
When you compare the current score of 28, to the yearly Crypto Fear & Greed index, it signals now is a good time to buy.
Important Indicators:
- High amount of ‘Fear’ is an indicator to buy.
- High amount of ‘Greed’ in an indicator to sell.
Economic Environment and News Analysis
There have been several weekly news stories and on-goings in the world that have impacted the crypto market. The following are some of the key headlines:
CRYPTO MARKET PRICE ACTION
Three weeks on from the FTX bankruptcy chaos the market looks to have stabilised. Three weeks ago we saw the price of Bitcoin crash from $20,500 to $15,800 within the space of two days, since then, it has maintained a stable price at around the $17,000 price area.
Incoming lower interest rates?
Job lay-offs are that we are seeing all big tech commit to amidst the rising interest rates and stalling of revenue due to poor economical state of the world at the moment.
Although these job-layoffs are what some would consider to be extremely unfair, it could be seen as Bullish for the crypto space in the medium-term. As unemployment rates rise, it will force the FED to stall interest rate hikes which we have seen being implemented aggressively over the past few months. This stalling will potentially allow short-term relief among investors and the economy to have more disposable income to invest into markets.
FTX bankruptcy re-cap, three weeks on
Three weeks on from the catastrophe caused by FTX, and former CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried, we have seen very little resolution for customers or justice in general. Sam Bankman-Fried is still a free walking man, despite the Billions he lost in customer and company funds through shady practices.
BlockFi are the latest to file for Bankruptcy
BlockFi, a crypto financial service company, offering loans, interest on savings and other financial products has this week publicly claimed bankruptcy amongst the FTX outfall.
Investment Advice
In the long-term, we are at prices that are very appealing, when you consider that from now until the next Bull Run in 2024-25, strong projects should give very nice returns no matter what happens from now until then. However, as Bitcoin’s price enters levels of resistance at around $17,000, caution should still be had, as prices could dump from here.
A Bullish Perspective from @GertvanLagen suggests that $19,900 is on the cards for Bitcoin’s price over the coming week. This indicates that Bitcoin would blast through the upcoming resistance, which would see the markets rally, and produce nice returns if you were to invest at the moment.
@Pentosh1 believes the opposite is to come, hinting that Ethereum could see as low as $1,070 over the coming weeks. This would signal that now is a bad time to invest, as the upcoming resistance levels could easily wipe out a lot of profits.
As always, the long-term advice would be to find those altcoin gems that can make you those life changing gains, and look to dollar-cost average into long-term positions on them for the 2025 Bull Run, where we should see many huge returns on investments.
On the Cryptoreviewing.com website we provide top quality, comprehensive altcoin reviews to help you find the perfect investment, for those life-changing gains.
Not financial advice. Educational content only. Always do your own research.
References
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/